Economists at financial firm Morgan Stanley said they were uncertain about the end of the trade war, but warned in June 2019 that it could lead to a recession.  The agreement provides the U.S. with some benefits on financial services, including electronic payments, securities, fund management, and insurance, but many of these changes were already underway. In an attempt to ease tensions with the Trump administration, China had already tried in 2017 to give more influence to foreign companies in its financial sector, and U.S. banks and other companies have taken majority stakes in Chinese companies. Economist Paul Krugman said in September 2020 that if Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins the US presidential election, he should maintain a tough stance on China, but focus more on industrial policy than on trade tariffs.  President Donald Trump shakes hands with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He before signing the first phase of a U.S.-China trade deal. | Mark Wilson/Getty Images After the December 2019 agreement on the first phase of a trade deal, Mary E. Lovely, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a professor at Syracuse University, said the ceasefire was „good news” for the U.S. economy and said she was optimistic that the talks would help combat China`s „unfair” intellectual property practices.   Other Republican senators said they were more divided. Mitch McConnell said „no one wins a trade war,” but he won hope that the tactic „would put us in a better position, against China.” John Cornyn said, „If that`s what it takes to make a good deal, I think people are going to get stuck there, but at some point it will have to be solved.
If it lasts a long time, everyone will realize that he is playing with a live grenade.  Joni Ernst said in May 2019 that the „tariffs are hurtful to peasants,” but that they „want us to find a way with China” and said, „We hope to be able to get a deal soon.”  Surveys of consumer sentiment and small business confidence showed a sharp decrease in uncertainty caused by the trade war in August 2019.   For the first time since January 2016, the Institute of Supply Management`s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers` Index, closely monitored, showed a decline in August; The ISM cited several executives who expressed concern about the ongoing trade war and cited shrinking export orders and the challenges of offshoring their supply chains out of China. The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers` Index for Manufacturing also fell in August for the first time since September 2009.  On the day of the ISM report`s release, Trump tweeted, „China`s supply chain will collapse and businesses, jobs, and money will disappear!”   One of the most important questions that preceded the negotiations with China was how an agreement would be implemented. . . .